Attribution, incrementality & effectiveness · Working
Counterfactual
Also called: no-treatment outcome
ELI5
The estimated outcome that would have occurred without the intervention.
Used in conversation
“Compare counterfactual with the same cohort and period before drawing a conclusion.”
Pitch context
You will see “Counterfactual” in brand decks, campaign plans, research reports and performance reviews when the discussion reaches attribution, incrementality & effectiveness.
Why it matters: It helps a reader interpret attribution, incrementality & effectiveness without confusing the measure, decision, role or evidence being discussed.
Sources & evidence · 5
Direct term-level sources and supporting source families.
- Google Analytics Help — Google Analytics dimensions and metricsDirect source · primary · checked 2026-08-16
- Interactive Advertising Bureau — Measurement guidelines and standardsDirect source · institutional · checked 2026-08-16
- American Marketing Association — Definitions of Marketing and BrandSupporting source family · institutional · checked 2026-08-16
- U.S. Federal Trade Commission — Advertising and Marketing GuidanceSupporting source family · primary · checked 2026-08-16
- Google Ads Help — Google Ads metrics and reportingSupporting source family · primary · checked 2026-08-16